The Social Problem Of Prostitution

The Social Problem Of Prostitution Prepare a discussion of at least four substantial paragraphs answering the questions that follow. Use at least one source beyond the course text that supports your position (remember to cite your source in APA style). Respond to at least two of your classmates postings. What would be the consequences for society if we could effectively halt the practice of prostitution? Should we do this even if we could? Could prostitution ever by organized such that it did not result in the exploitation of women? My Response There would be an increase in social problems; more rape, abuse, poverty, violence, trafficking, and underground prostitution if the practice of prostitution was effectively stopped. If we halted the practice of prostitution, we might as well halt the practice of pornography also. I am against legalizing prostitution but do not think it should be banned, because no matter what, prostitution will always be around. I believe prostitution is wrong, by legalizing it, some will think allowing sex outside of a marriage is ok, leading to more divorces, disease, and promote the approval of womens degradation (Henslin 2008, p. 79). Women are not objects, and should not be for sale. I like this statement from former Swedish Deputy Prime Minister, Margareta Winberg (2002), Prostitution and trafficking causes, gender inequality, sex and racial discrimination, and economic deprivation, as well as the rule of law, crime control, law enforcement and corruption (Winberg 2002, Sweden as Chair section para.5 ) In my opinion, streetwalkers should be incorporated into a red zone, or red light district, by doing this would help keep the drug addicts, and disease inflicted people separate from others. They should have to pay taxes, and have a rule where there are no sex services provided after a certain A.M. hour, like individual state laws on bar closing hours. If prostitutes or clients are found outside of that area, or after hours, they should be arrested. All other prostitutes would work as an escort, call girl or in a brothel, be regulated, and have proof that all employees have been tested for diseases and all employees will be taxed like any other worker. Legalizing prostitution will still exploit women. Searching for prostitution prevents law enforcement from responding to other victims and dangerous felons, and most of the time only the prostitutes are arrested, not the pimps, clients, or the strip club owners/managers, etcà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ By legalizing prostitution, laws could be enforced against people who abuse, or are violent against sex workers. Child sex, sex trade, forced labor, and kidnapping would be easier to target. To try to lower or halt the practice of prostitution, we need to warn women against solicitors and stop them, in order to encounter the demand for prostitution. Men, are usually the buyers of commercial sex acts, and the biggest consumers, of trafficked and prostituted women and children. Men do not respect prostitutes, but use them for entertainment, sexual gratification, acts of violence, and use them to meet their emotional needs, not their physical needs. In order to reduce victims of prostitution, and encounter the exploitation of women, all the components of the demand need to be punished; the men who purchase the sex acts, the exploiters, traffickers, pimps, and the culture that lies about the nature of prostitution (Hughes 2004, pp. 3, 4, 7). Sex will sell as long as there are men. Henslin, J. M. (2008). Seeing the social context. Boston, Ma: Allyn Bacon. Hughes, D. M. (2004). Prostitution causes and solutions (Adobe Digital), Retrieved from http://www.uri.edu/artsci/wms/hughes/prostitution_spain_july04.pdf Winberg, M. (2002, November 28). Address by the swedish deputy prime minister, margareta winberg. Retrieved from http://www.sweden.gov.se/sb/d/1105/a/6848 2/9/2010 8:54:09 PM If we could effectively halt the practice of prostitution the consequences in society would be many. The rise in crime would be, in my opinion, almost immediate. Sexual crimes such as rape and sodomy would be but the tip of the iceberg; domestic violence would rise, more violence could ensue because sexually frustrated people are not necessarily the nicest. Also more poverty would be one outcome, because prostitution is a mean of income for many; therefore robbery, drug dealing, burglary and other illegal means of income would rise as well. Should we do away with prostitution if we could? As I thought of my answer for this question, an interesting memory came back to me: when I was a teenager my parents would not allow me to wear loose fitting baggy clothes because they felt that a person should dress appropriately and that the baggy style looked street or like you had no home. In my mind I found my parents to be too stereotypical, they needed to Americanize; after all, we had left our fitted-jeans country a long time ago, who would judge me by my clothes? The more they denied me the right to dress like that, the more I wanted to; I would sneak my fathers t-shirts to school, I would borrow my friends X-L sweat pants and change in the bathroom at my school. I felt I was cool, I fit in with the rest of my peers; of course I was caught various times, but I didnt care, Id continue to do it. One day my parents sat me down and said, OK, we get it, you want to dress like the rest to be cool, youre allowed to do so, baggy outf its are added to the swear jar I felt like I won, I dressed baggy almost every day for three weeks and paid a dollar to the swear jar, and thenà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ the magic wore off. I was no longer going against anyone; there was no thrill of getting caught, nothing; if anything I was losing money for my stubbornness. I went back to dressing appropriately. My parents were very smart when they did this, although they did not like it, they approved it and taxed it (which I later learned was the money we used for family outings), everyone got their way. Where am I getting to? Well, I feel that we should play it smart. If we were able to successfully stop prostitution, the negative outcomes may outweigh the positive ones. Instead, I think that we should legalize prostitution, set guidelines for the practice such as testing every week, no pimps, males allowed to work in this profession (EEO) and best of all: tax it; right or wrong it could stimulate the economy. This could have positive outcomes in that, there would be less scandals, less sexual crimes, possibly less STDs going around and a monetary gain to the government. Organizing prostitution so that it is not exploitation of women, I believe is possible. Exploitation by means of prostitution is a matter of perspective; one can argue that the woman is exploiting the men. The men exploit the women by satisfying his own needs and the women are exploiting the men because they know he has them and is willing to pay. With the exception of prostitutes who are slaved by their pimps, I dont think anyone is exploiting the women. Perhaps if there were rights or laws protecting prostitution as a profession, such as no pimps, medical rights and protection from harassment, the perspective of exploitation could be done away with. Henslin, J. M. (2008). Social problems: A down-to-Earth approach. 8th edition. Boston: Pearson Education, Inc. The Larry Mahoney Case Read Issues in Social Problems on page 121 of your text. Larry Mahoney served ten years in the Kentucky state prison at La Grange. In at least four paragraphs, prepare your discussion around the case questions: Do you think this was just? Instead of going to prison, do you think that he should have been fined and had his drivers license revoked? Or should he have been given the death sentence, as some prosecutors demanded? What do you think would have been appropriate? Respond to at least two of your classmates postings. I feel that the Larry Mahoney case was treated very lightly. I do not feel that his punishment was just. Yet I am forced to say it was well handled. The jury charged him with manslaughter and other lesser offenses and recommended 16 years of imprisonment, and under Kentucky law the judge could not add to the sentence. It is beyond me why the fact that he drove drunk and killed any amount of people didnt get him his license revoked permanently! Was the sentence just? Yesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ to an extent. It is bizarre to me how some prosecutors throw the death penalty request around like its any other paper request in an office. Its supposed to be justice right? How is it fair that a man who killed 27 people, gets to die and the family of the dead get to live with the pain, sorrow and hurt in their hearts, bodies and soul? No death penalty, let him live to face the consequences; and besides, how would justice for accidentally killing people be served by purposely killing someone else? That is like swatting your childs hand and yelling hitting people is wrong, dont do it! I am FOR the death penalty when it comes to serial anything, killer, rapist, et al. They pose an extreme danger to society, we cannot teach them a lesson, we cannot re-wire their brains, they are not remorseful Fining him and revoking his license should have been done regardless of him going to jail or not, regardless of him killing people or not; it should have been done regardless of any outcome when he was found drunk behind the wheel. Spending 16 years in jail seems to me to be a bit fair, because that is what the jury delivered; I was not there, I am not aware of how the law worked back then and I believe that if 12 complete strangers all come to the same agreement of justice, then justice was served for them. I do not, however, agree with the fact that his license was not revoked, or that he was eligible for parole; good conduct or not, he should have served the full sentence. The sentence I would consider fair, would be: 54 years imprisonment No eligibility for parole Permanent revocation of all driving privileges We can sit here and argue all day on this subject, but the truth is that our judicial system is far better now than it was back then. Justice was served for that time, not ours. Henslin, J. M. (2008). Social problems: A down-to-Earth approach. 8th edition. Boston: Pearson Education, Inc.

Export Strategy Belgian Chocolate Factory

Table of contents Introduction 1? Presentation of the company 1. 1? History 1. 2? Philosophy 1. 3? Organization 1. 4? The company’s activities 1. 5? Activities concerned by the exportation 2? Macro economic analysis 2. 1? LE PEST C analysis 3? Export strategy 3. 1? The reasons of the company’s international opening 3. 2? The current exporting strategy 4? Export abilities 4. 1? The export diagnosis 4. 1. 1? The production tool 4. 1. 2? The finance 4. 1. 3? The products 4. 2? Analysis of the German market 4. 2. 1? The Four C framework 4. 2. 2? Satisfyer 5? Dolfin’s SWOT analysis 5. 1. 1? Explanations of Swot 6? Recommendations 6. 1? Competition on the German market 6. 2? Distribution problems 7? Conclusion 8? Bibliography 1? 2? 2? 2? 2? 3? 3? 5? 5? 7? 7? 8? 10? 10? 10? 10? 10? 11? 11? 13? 14? 14? 17? 17? 18? 19? 20? Introduction In this report, we have chosen to analyze Dolfin, a Belgian company that has been producing fullflavoured chocolate bars since 1989. We will be analysing the exports of Dolfin, which nowadays is exporting to 22 countries around the world. The purpose of this report is to make an export audit in order to check if the company meets the necessary requirements. The main objective of this report is to build a SWOT analysis regarding the export of the company in order to propose development strategies linked to it. In order to do so, we have divided our work into 5 parts: first an analysis of the company, secondly we will focus on the international environment of Dolfin. After that we will move on to its export strategy before developing its export abilities. Finally, we will analyse Dolfin’s management of international operations in order to conclude with recommendations. The country we have chosen to explore is Germany, firstly because it is one of the biggest consumers of chocolate in the world1, and secondly because recently Dolfin has faced some issues in order to export to this country. Besides, Germany is Dolfin’s main exporting country. PONTILLON, J. ,( coordinateur),Cacao et chocolat : production, utilisation, caracteristiques, Paris , Editions TEC et DOC, 1998, p25. 1 ? 1 1 Presentation of the company 1. 1 History Two Belgian brothers – Michael and Jean-Francois Poncelet – who decided to follow in their father’s footsteps, created Dolfin in 1989. Both of them grew up with a fascination for the process of making chocolate. 2 â€Å"Always bearing in mind this craftsman's approach, forcing the tool to meet the demands of quality, rather than the other way around, the sales have been rising steadily, amounting to 220 tonnes in the year 2000. The top-of-the-range bars and Neapolitan chocolate squares are now on offer in prestigious emporiums such as Selfridges in London, La Grande Epicerie in Paris, the KDW in Berlin and the Sony Plaza in Tokyo†. 3 1. 2 Philosophy4 For the master chocolate makers of Dolfin, chocolate is a passion. They dare to create the most unexpected combinations, to invent the subtlest harmonies, searching as a team for the finest ingredients selected from the best that nature offers. Their chocolate coverings are made of exclusive recipes, constant in quality and taste. Dolfin also offers a wide range of chocolate, from 32% cocoa in milk chocolate to 88% in the bitterest. Containing less sugar, less fat and more cocoa than traditional recipes, Dolfin’s products concentrate the nutritional and therapeutic qualities of chocolate. Simple and authentic, chocolate is stored naturally for a long time (one year without any preserving agent). 1. Organization Dolfin is a Belgian private limited company with a turnover of 3. 000. 000 â‚ ¬ and a net profit of 429. 237 â‚ ¬ in 20085. WORLD WIDE CHOCOLATE, Dolfin chocolates and chocolate bars, URL address: http://www. worldwidechocolate. com/shop_dolfin. html (viewed 16th November 2009). 3 Dolfin – Dark chocolate, URL address: http ://www. finedarkchocolate. com/Chocolate/Dolfin/index. asp (viewed 16th November 2009). 4 DOLFIN, Philosophie, URL address: http://dolfin. be/index. php? lang=En=philosophie (viewed the 16th November 2009).? 5 NATIONAL BANK OF BELGIUM, Comptes annuels en euro, 2008, 18p. , URL address : http://banquenationale. e/pub/ (viewed the 20th November 2009) 2 ? 2 Organization chart: General chocolates Company Holding Dolfin S. A. 5 Shareholders JJ. de Gruben Administration Finance Marketing R Production Purchase Quality Sales department 1 person 1 person 2 persons 12-15 pers. 1. 4 The company’s activities The main activities of the company are: – Gourmet squares with personalised packaging: The original activity of Dolfin is to make chocolate bars for companies with a personalised packaging in order to be used as gifts or as advertisement. Nowadays, even though this activity has decreased, it still represents 25% of the turnover. As a small company, Dolfin is more flexible and can offer tailor made products. – The Dolfin chocolate range offers chocolate bars of 30 and 70 grams, Gourmet squares, chocolate flakes and dark chocolate petals with flowers, Jacqmotte coffee chocolate bars. – Tohi brand: this new Dolfin’s brand created in September 2008, is organic certified (controlled by Certisys) and fair trade (controlled by Max Havelaar). 1. 5 Activities concerned by the exportation ? 3 – Dolfin chocolate bars are exported in more than 22 countries, often in specialised  « delicatessen  ». It is considered as fine chocolate, and it is sold in the most luxurious and prestigious place in trendsetter’s cities such as Paris (Lafayette), London, New York, Berlin†¦ – The Tohi brand is only exported in health food shops to make sure people trust the brand before selling it in other shops. ? 4 2 Macro economic analysis 2. 1 LE PEST C analysis In order to understand clearly the environment in which our organisation works, it’s important to make a â€Å"LE PEST C Analysis†. This one ensures Dolfin to adapt its strategy to each specific market taking account of the external environment. Legal aspects: There are 3 specific laws and norms: The HACCP norms in Belgium (â€Å"Hazard Analyses Critical Control Points†) regulate the quality of food industry products by preventing, managing and controlling the production chain6. The ISO 22000 â€Å"specifies requirements for a food safety management system where an organization in the food chain needs to demonstrate its ability to control food safety hazards in order to ensure that food is safe at the time of human consumption. †7 This norm is applicable to all organizations, regardless of the size, which are involved in any aspect of the food chain and want to implement systems that consistently provide safe products. European Directive: The labelling and the presentation of chocolate and cocoa products are regulated by the E. C (directive 2003/13/EC and 2000/36/EC). On a global view, pre-packed foodstuffs (to be delivered to the final consumers) must comply with compulsory standards on labelling and advertising. On the packaging must appear: – the name under which product is sold – a list of ingredients – the potential allergens – the durability date – the conditions for keeping – the place of origin FOULON L. , Hygiene et technologie de chocolaterie, Bruxelles, CERIA, syllabus, 2009-2010, p. International Organization for Standardization, URL address: http://www. iso. org/iso/catalogue_detail? csnumber=35466 (viewed the 02nd of November 2009). 8 Idem 7 6 ? 5 Each of these indications must be written in an easily understood language (official language of the country of marketing), especially for the chocolate or cocoa derivatives, we should also mention if there is a use of vegetable fats9. Ecological With the growing concern about the environment, Dolfin has to take into account various environmental pressures. For several years now, it decided to cut its greenhouse gasses emissions and has become the first neutral carbon chocolate factory in Belgium. Moreover, a lot of specific materials are now forbidden and companies have to adapt. Due to that, Dolfin has made contracts with some firms specialized in ecological packaging. Political The political stability and the good relationship between Belgium and Germany are crucial. Economical: Globally, Germans are scared of the inflation level10. The sector is dependent on cocoa which is quoted on the stock exchange market and very sensitive to speculation. Moreover, it’s a seasonal product and there is a slack period from March to June. Sociocultural: Here is a growing concern for several years with healthy food and obesity which can lead to a change in food habits and the need of specific products (less sugar, more cocoa). Technological For all new projects, Dolfin has to think about environmental pressures. Competitivity: The competition in the sector is tough. Dolfin is a mid-upscale product and have to compete with multinational companies and other upscale product. Furthermore, in this sector, the competition is all the more intensive as products can be easily imitated. After launched a new one, competitors can copy the recipe without difficulty. ?EUROPA, Etiquetage, presentation et publicite des denrees alimentaires, URL address : http://europa. eu/legislation_summaries/consumers/product_labelling_and_packaging/l21090_fr. htm, (viewed 1st November) 10 GERMAN CULTURE, Germany in the World Economy, URL address : http://www. germanculture. com. ua/library/facts/bl_germany_world_economy. htm (viewed on the 15th of November).? 9 ? 6 3 Export strategy 3. The reasons of the company’s international opening Dolfin didn’t really aspire to export in the beginning but it came out as a good solution. On the one hand, the brand (Dolfin and Tohi) can keep their own shops in Belgium in order to boost the sales and to improve the brand awareness among potential new customers. On the other hand, Dolfin can export its products on the international market, which appeared to be the best solution because Belgian chocolate has a worldwide good reputation abroad. The three main countries where Dolfin is exporting are: Germany, France and the United States of America. As explained before we have decided to focus on the German market. To understand the situation we will first have a look at the evolution and how they penetrated the market in 2001. In 2001, at the Ism fair (one of the most important fairs for chocolate makers) in Germany, German importers showed interest to import the company’s products. We could say that Dolfin did not really have a strategy ready for that. They decided to export in order to satisfy this demand. They started with 2 distributors: Feinkost (confectionery) and Suesswaren (delicatessen). They had exclusive contracts with these 2 distributors. By 2005, according to Nathalie Trachte, one of the administrators of Dolfin, the interest for quality food in Germany is increasing. This means they prefer to pay more for high quality chocolate bars than eating a huge quantity of bulk chocolate. By that time, Dolfin realised they had no commercial strategy in Germany and that they had very few market shares. In 2006, the turnover of the German exportations dropped off by 15%. The reasons are first, because both distributors became competitors; secondly, it was due to the increasing number of new chocolate products on the German market. 1 In 2008, despite the crisis, the price of raw materials and the cultural fear for inflation in Germany, the exportations remained at a certain level. Moreover specialised shops decided to focus on bestsellers like Dolfin. However, the turnover kept on decreasing. In 2009, because of the very long summer, the season started a bit later. 11 Belcolade Conference, Salon de Paris 2009 (14th – 18th October 2009) ? 7 Belgian export to Germany (code SH18-cacao)12 : (M â‚ ¬) Chocolate and Cocoa Total export 2002 202,87 2003 199,60 2004 217,878 2005 240,18 2006 249,03 2007 278,49 2008 281,42 9. 402,07 31. 067,38 34. 037,69 35. 271,04 38. 451,03 38. 727,10 42. 605,73 This graph demonstrates an evolution in the Belgian exports of chocolate and cacao towards Germany between 2002 and 2008. This represents an increase of about 38% in 6 years. This means that Dolfin is acting in a growing market and that there are still opportunities to seize. 3. 2 The current exporting strategy Dolfin started to rethink the way it was exporting to Germany. In 2007, they decided to use the 5 P’s theory: – Product: launching new products and combining new flavours. Price: the price is higher than other standard chocolates as they sell quality products. However, it is not as expensive as premium chocolate. They didn’t want to change the price as they consider it as a fair one for a mid-upscale product. As we are talking about a niche product, changing the price wouldn’t be a suitable action to take. Communication by mail with Mrs Stas Marie, Service Evaluation et Strategie, Agence Wallonne a l'Exportation et aux Investissements Etrangers, 3/11/09 ? 12 ? 8 – Place: Dolfin started to look for suitable places for their products in order to create a luxury, exclusive image. They decided to work with only one of the 2 distributors. – Promotion: Dolfin decided to advertise, to promote, to organize tastings in shops, releasing more press articles, etc†¦ – People: the question was: â€Å"are they working with the right people and do they know them enough? † As a response they increased the number of visits to distributors. In a nutshell, Dolfin is using direct exports selling its products straight to distributors. ? 9 4 Export abilities 4. 1 The export diagnosis 4. 1. 1 The production tool The production capacity Dolfin exports today 85% of its total production out of the Belgian territory. However, it’s only using half of its production capacity. The production adaptability Each exporting market has its own demand specificities and likings, that’s why Dolfin pays special attention to analyze the product and make sure it will be suitable for most of the export markets. 4. 1. 2 The finance Dolfin gets its money mainly from the shareholders. They get subsidies from AWEX for the set up of the website, transport for fairs, stands, catalogues, etc. Dolfin doesn’t invest a lot in investigation. They actually wait for potential customers to come to them. 4. 1. 3 The products The Bio-physical characteristic Chocolate has 6 main enemies: humidity, temperature shocks, too high temperature, light, insects and smells†¦ The transport should also prevent strong smells to reach the chocolate because the cocoa butter is very sensitive to the smells. Chocolate is a perishable commodity with an average life time going from 12 to 18 months (depending on the flavours). Therefore, it is essential to assure, on the one hand, a quick transportation and, and on the other hand, good transport conditions to hamper the chocolate to become white if the temperature is not suitable. The regulatory criterion Chocolate being an alimentary product, several norms and regulations are in use worldwide. As seen before, in Belgium we have the HACCP norms and companies also apply the ISO 22000 along with the European directives. ? 10 4. 2 Analysis of the German market 4. 2. 1 The Four C framework From the mid nineties to the late nineties, Germany was considered as a â€Å"mass market† as well as a very compressed â€Å"price market†. Indeed the Germans were known to be big consumers of milk chocolate buying low quality chocolate. However, in the late nineties, beginning of 2000, interest for quality increased and Germany became a connoisseur market. That is when Dolfin entered the German market. â€Å"Marketing is a system for identifying and satisfying customer needs and wants†¦profitably  »13. In order to do so, businesses have got to be customer oriented, which means they have to think in their point of view. In fact, the four P framework we analyzed previously will be now converted into C’s: Product = Customer Solution †¢ Quality products are of great interest as well as organic certified products as it is a growing trend. †¢ Design and packaging of Dolfin’s products are attractive to target audience and they are original. For the packaging, they respect the European directives concerning languages that must appear on the label. Indeed, in the case of Germany, customers can read the ingredients and other type of information in German, but also in French, English and Dutch. Doing this, Dolfin can use the same packaging for Belgium or other countries where these languages are spoken. †¢ 59% are loyal to their brand14. Price = Customer Value †¢ Does price matter? For some, absolutely: Germans are the most price-conscious chocolate buyers (35%)15. But Dolfin suits its prices to the audience it targets, so there is no change TLATLI F. , Behaviors of the actors of the market, Bruxelles, ICHEC, slides 2009-2010. BARRY CALLEBAUT, Survey, 2008, URL address : http://www. barrycallebaut. com/56? group=,year=,lang=en,keyword=,page=1,release =4072,read=en (viewed 15th November) 15 idem 14 13 ? 11 needed regarding this. Furthermore, according to Nathalie Trachte: the costs related to the chocolate production don’t enable them to lower their price. 16 †¢ Regarding the payments, they act different towards European and non-European customers. Indeed, customers inside Europe like Germany have to pay the first 5 orders in advance. After this period they’ll get 30 days credit for each order. If the customer doesn’t pay after those 30 days, Dolfin won’t accept any order from them. Outside Europe, another policy is applied in order to hedge risks. They won’t deliver products, unless they have received the counter-part and this for every order. †¢ Nathalie Trachte also pointed out the fact that prices or payments negotiations are difficult and long but once they are achieved, they do not discuss them again. Place = Convenience †¢ In Germany, Dolfin sells its products through different channels. The company is represented in small specialized shops but also in high class supermarkets. Their geographical coverage is very large. Indeed, you can find Dolfin’s Chocolates almost everywhere but only in luxurious places. This is very important for the image of the brand. In Germany you find them next to competitors such as Domori, Valrhona, etc. †¢ Concerning the transport of the goods, they use the Incoterms Ex Works, which means that â€Å"the seller, in this case Dolfin, puts the goods at the disposal of the buyer in his accommodations†17. As seen previously, the transport has to take into account the bio-physical characteristics of chocolate. Futhermore, we will analyze the reason of this choice in the SWOT analysis. Promotion + PEOPLE = communication †¢ They especially emphasize on this concept. Indeed, satisfied customer is the best advertising. In terms of P’s, promotion and especially people are of great importance since they allow Dolfin to establish a good dialogue between both their suppliers and customers. As analyzed previously, due to the crisis the company had to review its strategy and in order to do so, they focused their attention on communication. This permits Dolfin to be closer to their distributors and hence their customers. Personal interview with Nathalie Trachte, Administrator and Marketing responsible, Dolfin, Bruxelles, Belgium, 27th October 2009.? 17 HEINEN M-L. , Managing International Operations, Bruxelles, ICHEC, slides 2009-2010, p. 39. 16 ? 12 4. 2. 2 Satisfyer Dolfin has to know how to develop its customers’ satisfaction. They are looking for global satisfaction to have total happiness. Because it is not only at the point of sales, but most of all while consuming the product that the customer becomes satisfied, Dolfin is concentrating its efforts on the intangible elements, the most important part of satisfaction. Indeed, for them, launching new quality products with original recipes is important but not only: they also have to invent other elements around that product in order to differentiate it from the competition with the aim to bring customer’s satisfaction. Within this concept of intangible elements, we distinguish the basic ones and the dynamic ones. As regards Dolfin’s basic intangible, quality is of great importance. That’s why, they stress on good services and constant quality to deliver what they promised to the customer. To ensure that, Dolfin’s production methods conform to the strictest and most up-to-date standards of quality and cleanliness. One of the priorities of Dolfin is not only to make sure ingredients come from considered and concerned sources, but also to stay up-to-date in respect to the environment. In fact, Dolfin became the first CO2-neutral Belgian chocolate maker. Related to that quality, Dolfin is trying to create continuity. Indeed, focused on the future, they have to make sure the customer will remain loyal to them. To do so, they are also trying to launch and deliver their new creations on time as well on the market as to the customers. This can only work if Dolfin can trust its customers, but also it has to have good relationships inside and outside the company. Inside the company, everybody knows each other as they are only 15. Outside the company, they are working with suppliers and distributors they have known for a long time. For the dynamic intangible, we can say that it is a prestige product for which the customer knows he will spend more money than for a standard chocolate, but in exchange, he gets a good feeling eating it. ? 13 5 Dolfin’s SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses – Organic and Fair-trade Brand : Max Havelaar & – Organic:? ifferent production schedules â€Å"Organic farming† certified – Packaging : language, experience, resistance and traceability – Respect of sanitary rules: A. F. S. C. A – No allergens contained (targets wider audience) – Small company: faster decision making – Present in trendsetter cities – No intermediaries (closer to customer) – Tastings, workshops, exhibitions in shops – Production capacity not fully used – Not in charge of the transport (Ex Works) – CO2 neutral ? more controls (Max Havelaar) – Low financial backup – Not in charge of the transport (Ex Works) Opportunities – Few competition for Belgian organic chocolate – Growing demand for fine dark chocolate in Germany18 – Good reputation of Belgian chocolate19 Threats – Cocoa is quoted on the stock exchange – Profit linked to cash flow management – Competitive market – Copying of packaging and recipes – Seasonal product – World wide economical crisis 5. 1. 1 Explanations of SWOT Since some of the elements were not seen before or could be misunderstood, we would like to add more information. STIGSET M. , German Chocolate Market Is `Saturated,' Association Head Says, URL address : http://www. loomberg. com/apps/news? pid=20601100=aosOXeX9FzD4=germany (viewed 17th November 2009) 19 MERCIER, J. , la tentation du chocolat, Belgique, Editions Racines, 2007, p82-101. 18 ? 14 Strength: – Their packaging is the same for Belgium as for Germany because it is written in 4 languages. Besides, the experience in packaging is due to their first activity in the chocolate business, in which they were making private label range products with Dolfin chocolate in it. They are very conscientious regarding traceability. Therefore, every packaging has a batch on it. Within their new export strategy, they focus on the promotional aspect. Indeed, Dolfin organises tastings, workshops †¦ to attract the customer in an original way. – The production capacity not being fully used, the company could increase the production without spending too much money on new machinery. Consequently, the company could raise its production capacity very quickly and respond faster than competitors to an order. – In most cases, Dolfin doesn’t organize the transport. They use the Incoterms Ex Works. This allows them to focus on their production and not on transport issues. Besides, their customers (importers) are used to transport and know better how to do it. Nevertheless, Dolfin sometimes recommends a transport company to its customers. – In 2008, Dolfin took the initiative to reduce its emissions of CO2 by 15%. Moreover, they took part in a project in Rajasthan to offset their remaining CO2 emissions20. That way, Dolfin became the first CO2 neutral company of Belgium. Weaknesses: – Having an organic and fair-trade brand does include some disadvantages. Firstly, the production schedule will have to be modified in order to prevent contamination between both conventional and organic production. Secondly, Max Havelaar (fair trade) and Certisys21 (organic) check the production to make sure it is worth its organic and fair-trade certification. – The disadvantage of an Ex Works system is that customers may want a full service. However, Dolfin sometimes makes exceptions for some customers. Opportunities: – There is a growing demand for higher-quality dark chocolate in Germany22. Germans are becoming connoisseur and prefer quality. DOLFIN, Environnement, URL address: http://dolfin. be/index. php? lang=En=philosophie (viewed the 20th November 2009).. 1 CERTISYS, Organic Guarantee – Certisys, URL address: http://www. tohi. be/En/home. php? lang=En (viewed the 16th of November). 22 STIGSET M. , op. cit. , p. 12 20 ? 15 Threats: – The cocoa is quoted on the stock exchange in Pounds per ton. This means this raw material is very sensitive to speculations. Furthermore, the production of cocoa depends on the weather, the climate previsions (droughts, floods, p lants diseases†¦) but also the political situation in the producing countries. 23 In addition to that, other raw materials are also quoted (milk powder, sugar†¦ ). As regards the profit of the company, it is inked to the purchase of raw materials because the cocoa price is very volatile. Unfortunately, a price increase cannot fully be rejected on the client, and the company has to bear the burden of this problematic situation. – A good cash flow management is of great importance. It is capital to get paid from customers before paying suppliers. Therefore, Dolfin has to manage well its purchases and sales cycles: they need to have a positive net working capital. – In the chocolate sector, we observe a lot of copying of both the packaging and recipes. Indeed, during fairs for example, it is common to spy on the competition. Therefore, industrial companies copy the ideas of smaller chocolate makers. – Recently, because of the crisis, the bankruptcy of a big customer has consequences on the financial situation of Dolfin. 23 PONTILLON J. , op. cit. , p. 1.? ? 16 6 Recommendations In order to propose recommendations, it is of interest to analyze the history of the current export strategy of Dolfin. We have seen that in 2001 Dolfin started to export to Germany on the demand of two German importers. In fact, Dolfin didn’t plan to export at that time and they didn’t develop any export strategy in order to do so. They just did it, and, until 2007, business went good – sales and turnover increased every year. But in 2007 things went on differently. Dolfin started to loose market shares, and business didn’t go on better in 2008. Starting from that point, we are going to build our recommendations. By interviewing Nathalie Trachte, administrator and manager of the marketing department of Dolfin, we tried to find out the reasons of the current situation. Out of the discussion appeared two essential facts: the competition on the German market has strongly increased and Dolfin is facing distribution problems. . 1 Competition on the German market As developed previously in the cross-cultural analysis, we have to think and act in terms of customer solution and not the other way around. Recent surveys of Barry-Callebaut24 reveal some figures about the German chocolate consumers. Here are some interesting conclusions: – 60% prefers milk chocolate – only 37% consumes dark choc olate (less than all other Europeans) – German consumers are especially keen on change: 25% of German chocolate lovers surveyed regularly try different types and flavours. Among a trend towards premium chocolate, original, organic and fair trade chocolates are becoming increasingly popular. To be able to offer customer solutions to the German consumers, we would recommend: – to increase the amount of milk chocolate products it offers. For example, currently, only 5 out of the 17 flavours of the chocolate bars of 70 grams are made with milk chocolate. – to develop the marketing around Tohi. Indeed, as fair trade and organic food become more popular on the German market, we shall respond to this demand. This should be done through smart advertising. As we noticed before, Germans are sensitive to good quality products and keen to change 24 BARRY CALLEBAUT, op. cit. , p. 11 ? 17 as mentioned above. Therefore, it is of great importance to increase the customer’s awareness regarding the combination of quality – organic- and fair trade, with a particular stress on the quality of Tohi’s product. With these 2 recommendations we hope to respond to the problem concerning the increase in competition. 6. 2 Distribution problems To address the second problem relating to the distribution, we shall focus on ommunication: – We believe that frequent meetings between distributors and Dolfin’s employees would improve the established dialogue. Indeed, by doing this, they can share the knowledge concerning Dolfin range of products, and also the philosophy and strategy of the company. This would be particularly interesting when new creations are launched. This enables Dolfin to have a more coherent strategy and to achieve cohesion between Dolfin, distributors and customers. This way, the message the company is sending will be understood the right way. This might take time and money to be implemented, but it is worth a try. Let’s now focus on possible openings: First, hotel-catering trade (Horeca) is an attractive sector. In Belgium, the company has a partnership with â€Å"le pain quotidien†. We believe it would be interesting to seek for similar cooperation in Germany. Secondly, since chocolate sales are high during specific events such as Christmas, birthdays, Saint Valentine days, mothers/fathers’ days, etc†¦ They should develop new/original ideas in order to respond to this demand. That’s why we came up with the idea that a package including flowers and chocolate could satisfy the specific demand during those special days. However, it is important to point out that it would be a difficult business to develop since laws and norms concerning foodstuffs are very strict. Finally, as the e-business is spreading all around the world, we thought Dolfin should develop a new strategy regarding this. On the one hand, it would enable the company to reach new customers and on the other hand, it allows being closer to their already loyal distributors/customers. Nevertheless, this implies hiring new employees who can manage properly both businesses and the creation of a new department. In addition to that, it is difficult, through the web, to be close to their clients and to establish a good communication. ? 18 7 Conclusion We have reached the end of our analysis and it is now time for us to conclude the work. Firstly, we want to thank Nathalie Trachte for her devotion and vital information. By doing this paper we’ve learned to think in terms of international market and export. We’ve encountered 2 main problems during this assignment: the distribution and the competition on the German market. In order to tackle these, we have relied on the SWOT-analysis which we have built up, in order to develop recommendations. We do hope these will be suitable for Dolfin. For each of the 2 problems, we have tried to find possible solutions. In addition to that, we have also intended to be more creative, considering other possible market openings. Nevertheless, we have to bear in mind the fact that we are not professionals with an experienced background and we may have forgotten to take some aspects into account for the analysis. Furthermore, to make a relevant export audit, more time and more information, especially regarding the German market, would be required. ? 19 8 Bibliography 8. 1 Books †¢ FOULON L. Hygiene et technologie de chocolaterie, Bruxelles, CERIA, syllabus, 2009-2010, 35p. †¢ MERCIER, J. , la tentation du chocolat, Belgique, Editions Racines, 2007, 240p. †¢ PONTILLON, J. , Cacao et chocolat: production, utilisation, caracteristiques, Paris, Editions TEC et DOC, 1998, 638p. 8. 2 Websites †¢ BARRY CALLEBAUT, Survey, 2008, URL address : http://www. barrycallebaut. com/56? g roup=,year=,lang=en,keyword=,page=1,release=4072,read=en (viewed 15th November) †¢ CERTISYS, Organic Guarantee – Certisys, URL address: http://www. tohi. be/En/home. php? lang=En (viewed the 16th of November). Dolfin – Dark chocolate, URL address: http://www. finedarkchocolate. com/Chocolate/Dolfin/index. asp (viewed 16th November 2009). †¢ DOLFIN, Philosophie, URL address: http://dolfin. be/index. php? lang=En=philosophie (viewed the 16th November 2009). †¢ EUROPA, Etiquetage, presentation et publicite des denrees alimentaires, URL address : http://europa. eu/legislation_summaries/consumers/product_labelling_and_packag ing/l210 90_fr. htm, (viewed 1st November) †¢ GERMAN CULTURE, Germany in the World Economy, URL address: http://www. germanculture. com. ua/library/facts/bl_germany_world_economy. htm (viewed on the 15th of November). International Organization for Standardization, URL address: http://www. iso. org/iso/catalogue_detail? csnumber=3546 6 (viewed the 02nd of November 2009). ? 20 †¢ NATIONAL BANK OF BELGIUM, Comptes annuels en euro, 2008, 18p. , URL address : http://banquenationale. be/pub/ (viewed the 20th November 2009) †¢ STIGSET M. , German Chocolate Market Is `Saturated,' Association Head Says, URL address : http://www. bloomberg. com/apps/news? pid=20601100&sid=aosOXeX9FzD4&refer=german y (viewed 17th November 2009) †¢ WORLD WIDE CHOCOLATE, Dolfin chocolates and chocolate bars, URL address: http://www. worldwidechocolate. om/shop_dolfin. html (viewed 16th November 2009) 8. 3 Interview †¢ Personal interview with Nathalie Trachte, Administrator and Marketing responsible, Dolfin, Bruxelles, Belgium, 27th October 2009. 8. 4 Others †¢ Belcolade Conference, Salon de Paris 2009 (14th – 18th October 2009) †¢ Communication by mail with Mrs Stas Marie, Service Evaluation et Strategie, Agence Wallonne a l'Exportation et aux Investissements Etrangers, 3/11/09 †¢ HEINEN M-L. , Mana ging International Operations, Bruxelles, ICHEC, slides 2009-2010, p. 39 †¢ TLATLI F. , Behaviors of the actors of the market, Bruxelles, ICHEC, slides 2009-2010 ?

Forecasting techniques in tourism demand Essay

This summary is focused on showing the forecasting techniques used to determine the likely demand in tourism and argues that given the importance of the tourism sector to the economy of any tourist country, accurate forecasts of tourist arrivals are of importance for planning by both the private and public sectors. First we should answer the question what tourism is itself. It is obvious that tourism industry is not one company. It combines thousands of products and services. A company sets goals and uses its production, marketing and managerial resources to achieve them through its management process. And in tourism there are too many companies involved and too many goals are set, but almost everything in this industry depends upon the visitor numbers in other words demand. This is the main target of forecasting. It has been pointed out that forecasting is useful in shaping demand and anticipating it to avoid unsold inventories and unfulfilled demand. Moreover since consumer satisfaction depends on complementary services, forecasting can help to anticipate the demand for such services. As well it helps optimizing the use of public funds, in other words save money. It should be mentioned that a fall in demand can bring about decreases in living standards following the rise in unemployment, while increased demand can lead to higher employment, income, output and inflation as well may threaten environmental quality and sustainability. Moreover, tourism firms are confronted by changing revenue and profits and governments experience changing tax revenue and expenditure. Thus, tourism demand effect can be observed in all sectors of economy – households and individuals, public sector and private businesses. For example, decisions on tourist expenditures, the tourism markets structure and decision-making nature between them, cross-country linkages between tourism firms, the contribution of environmental resources and their relevance to policies for sustainable tourism have not been fully investigated and need further economic analysis. Aim. The paper is aiming on showing the existing forecasting techniques, their positive and negative features for better understanding the importance of demand forecasting in tourism, and the necessity of using these or those methods for obtaining the most accurate and precise results. It is obvious that one of the more complex aspects of tourism is the tourism demand. As a rule it is defined and measured in a variety of ways and at a range of scales. Generally, there are economic, psychological and social psychological methods used in forecasting. For example, decision to purchase holidays are often made with friends and family so that consumer demand theory based on individual decision-making must take account of individuals` and groups` social contexts. As well as the analysis of travel patterns and modes has been dominated by geographical analytical frameworks, while the study of demand outside economics tends to be underpinned by psychological or social psychological methods. ‘The many studies of tourism demand in different countries and time periods are reviewed by Archer, Johnson and Ashworth, Sheldon and Sinclair while Witt and Martin examined alternative approaches to tourism demand forecasting. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). The significance of tourism demand provides a strong case for better understanding of the decision-making process nature among tourists. In case of using an inappropriate theoretical framework in empirical studies of demand can result in incorrect specification to estimate tourism demand and biased measures of the responsiveness of demand to changes in its determinants. It should be mentioned that ‘empirical studies help to explain and understand the level and pattern of tourism demand and its sensitivity to changes in the variables it is dependant on. For example, it helps in observing income in origin areas, exchange rates between different destinations and origins as well as relative rates of inflation. This type of information is of importance to public sector policy-making and the private sector. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). But only in case of appropriate theoretical specification of the studying model used the estimates can be accurate and precise. Hence, explicit consideration of the consumer decision-making supporting empirical models is of importance in presenting the provided estimates are neither misleading nor inaccurate in their policy implications. Thus there are two approaches used to model tourism demand. First one is the single equation model and the second is the system of equation model. ‘The first one single equation model has been used in studies of tourism demand for numerous countries and time periods and states that demand is a function of a number of determining variables. ’ (Sinclair, 1997). This technique permits the calculation of the demand sensitivity to changes in these variables. Contrary to the first approach, the system of equations model requires the simultaneous estimation of a tourism demand equations range for the countries or types of tourism expenditure considered. The system of equations methodology tries to explain the sensitivity of the budget shares of tourism demand across a range of origins and destinations (or tourism types) to changes in the underlying determinants. There exists one more forecasting technique which is more recent and can be compared with the single equation approach. It is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). (Maria De Mello,1999). This model is theoretically better than the mentioned above and offers a range of useful information concerning the sensitivity of tourism demand to changes in relative prices and in tourists` expenditure budget. This approach was used in examining the UK demand for tourism in its geographical neighbor-countries as France, Spain and Portugal. The result of such investigation indicated that ‘the UK demand for tourism in Spain increased more than proportionately with respect to a rise in the UK expenditure budget for tourism in three countries, the demand for tourism in France increased less than proportionately and the demand for tourism in Portugal remained stable. The sensitivity of the UK demand for tourism in Spain to changes in effective prices in Spain is increasing and exceeds the corresponding values of the sensitivities of the demand for tourism in France and Portugal to changes in French and Portuguese prices, respectively. (Maria De Mello,1999). ‘In contrast, the UK demand for tourism in Spain is insensitive with respect to changes in prices in its smaller Portuguese neighbour. The UK demand for Portugal is sensitive to changes in prices in Spain, although the degree of sensitivity appears to be decreasing over time, and the demand for France (Portugal) is insensitive with respect to a change in prices in Portugal (France)’(Maria De Mello,1999). So it is obvious that stability of demand in the face of rising prices may be observed as signals of success, and contrary outcomes mean a possible case for rethinking policy toward tourism demand. Scientists have used a variety of other forecasting techniques during the past decades for tourist industry. Among them are quantitative forecasting methods. They may be classified into two categories: causal methods (regression and structural models) and time series methods (basic, intermediate, and advanced explorative methods). For further explanation we should mention that causal methods represent methodologies for identifying relationships between independent and dependent variables and attempt to incorporate the interdependences of various variables in the real world. However, there is certain difficulty of applying the causal methods. It is identifying the independent variables that affect the forecast variables. So the accurateness and reliability of final forecast outputs made under causal methods depend on the quality of other variables. The second group of methods, time series quantitative methods, offers many advantages. It is pointed out that ‘the use at time t of available observations from a time series to forecast its value at some future time t+1 can provide a basis for (1) economic and business planning, (2) production planning, (3) inventory and production control, and (4) control and optimization of industrial processes’(Chen, 2003). Time series methods offer techniques and concepts facilitating specification, estimation and evaluation. They acquire more precise forecasting results than those yielded by causal quantitative techniques. It should be mentioned as an example that forecasting is complicated by the strong seasonality of most tourism series. It is pointed out that to see seasonality as a form of data contamination is one of typical approaches to the analysis of macroeconomic time series. This was the approach often used in many census and statistical departments. In the case of tourism analysis seasonality is integral to the process and is of high importance for the timing of the issuance of policy measures in addition to studying the long run trend. ‘As significant features of quantitative tourism forecasting (involving the numerical analysis of historical data) we see that while it is particularly useful for existing tourism elements, it is limited in its application to new ones where no previous data exists’. (Smith, 1996). This technique was used in forecasting potential UK demand for space tourism. Appendix 1, 2). (Barrett, 1999). As well univariate forecasting techniques may be used to forecast arrivals. This limited methodology relative to structural models allowing policy makers to determine how changes in particular variables can help to improve the industry. The weak point of the technique is that the models have no explanatory variables so it is difficult to interpret the individual components. Therefore, the forecasting record of many univariate models have considerable forecasting accuracy. Lim and McAleer employed univariate techniques to forecast quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia and to determine their forecasting accuracy using a variety of seasonal filters. Kulendran and King also employed a variety of models to rank forecasting performance of various tourist arrival series using seasonal unit root testing’ (Alleyne, 2002). Conclusions and Recommendations. It should be mentioned that forecasting techniques and forecasting itself have some weak points. Firstly, current forecasting is mostly the domain of policy makers. It is beneficial for three groups: public sector tourism organizations as it helps justify budget allocations; managers of public and private sector tourism projects as they may encourage investors, and the forecasters themselves. There are no actual benefits from forecasting for tourism operators and suppliers because the results are not actionable and unrelated to the real needs of the majority of tourism businesses. The problem with the results may be illustrated by such an example. (March, 1993). ‘The BTR’s â€Å"Australian Tourism Forecasts† report released in April 1990 forecasts 4. 85 million visitors by the year 2000. The BTR’s latest forecast for 2000 is 4. 824 million visitors. And only last month The Australian newspaper (Oct 12 1993:p. 6) reported the results of â€Å"a respected private sector forecaster† who has forecast 5. 33 million by the end of the decade’(March, 1993). So you see numbers keep changing and this is the evidence that sometimes the forecasting results become not actionable. Summarizing all the mentioned above we may say that there is a wide range of techniques used for forecasting demand in tourism. In this paper we mentioned only some of them which to our mind deserve attention and may be used in forecasting the demand. As you may see investigation of tourism demand involves specific problems because it has some special nature attributed to the complexity of the motivational structure concerning decision-making process as well as the limited availability of the necessary data for econometric modeling. Quantitative approach for tourism demand needs the framework of a formal mathematical model providing estimates of sensitivity to changes in the variables the demand depends on. Econometric modelling offers a good basis for accurate forecasting which is of great importance to the public sector making investments in the industry. The single equation model often ignores the dynamic nature of tourism demand, disregarding the possibility that the sensitivity of tourism demand to its determinants may differ between periods of time. The alternative model is the Almost Ideal Demand System. It is originally developed by Deaton and Muellbauer. This model not only permits the estimation of the complete set of relevant elasticities, but also allows for formal tests of the validity of the assumptions about consumer behaviour within the sample set of observations. The AIDS allows to test assumptions and estimate parameters in a way which is not possible with other alternative models. So for now, we may say that there are no completely bad or good techniques used for forecasting tourism demand. But there are preferable models for getting more accurate results. It is better using models based on old theoretical knowledge but with new trends able to cover all the necessary aspects in forecasting tourism demand.

The Way Of The Ways - 1687 Words

The Way to â€Å"The Ways† I Modi—the â€Å"ways,† the â€Å"modes,† the â€Å"positions,† the â€Å"postures† —with such a simple name, I was surprised to realize that somehow this work had never crossed my path in all these years of studying the history of art. Even an advanced course focusing on fetishism, in art that is, failed to reveal to me the frankness of these drawings, while exposing me to similar subjects in arts ranging from the primitive, as produced by the first peoples of the Earth, to contemporary photography. These drawings were produced by Giulio Romano, a student of Raphael, in the early 1520s and subsequently engraved and printed by Marcantonio Raimondi. They form a series of sixteen images depicting a variety of sexual positions†¦show more content†¦Let us trace the way to I Modi. While one could begin this story with a look all the way back to so-called â€Å"primitive† art—which often reflected an interest in human sexu ality, if only based on concerns about fertility—it may be more appropriate to begin with a culture whose traditions have been clearly identified as having found their way into the ancient Roman psyche. That is, the culture of ancient Egypt. An example of this interest in human sexuality, and an expression of it in art, is Min, the Egyptian â€Å"god of male fertility.† â€Å"Representing masculine virility,† Min was usually â€Å"portrayed with an erect penis, which he typically grasped in his left hand.† As the ancient Romans were connected to certain areas of what is now known as Egypt, and as it has been shown that they adopted â€Å"the worship of the Egyptian goddess Isis† sometime in the first century BC, it may be reasonable to assume that they were familiar with such gods as Min, and may have even discovered some of these aforementioned depictions. As one continues to trace the history of sexuality and the erotic image leading up to the production of Giulio Romano’s I Modi, a logical stop along the journey would be ancient Greece. As time and space limit the scope of this analysis, direct examples from the art and culture of this region will not be examined. However, the contribution of the Greeks to the art,